Where the money went
Who earned or lost money, and which claims remain unmeasured?
Important technology does not automatically produce profit. This pathway separates financial results companies reported from profit pools that analysts predicted but companies never demonstrated.
What this covers. CATL, Ford Model e and selected US and Chinese passenger-market claims. Most software, data and mobility-service outcomes remain unmeasured.
Follow this pathway on the map →-
CATL reported strong profit and margins during the battery shortage. It is the clearest evidence that a supplier captured value.
At the same time, a carmaker could report large losses in its electric-vehicle business without proving that the supplier caused them.
-
Ford Model e reported large losses while US electric-vehicle transaction economics weakened.
Those results were measured. The proposed market for vehicle data was not.
-
Analysts predicted a large vehicle-data market, but the expected buyer and revenue model did not form.
Carmaker investments in ride-hailing created another position whose financial outcome remains undisclosed.
-
Carmakers bought stakes in ride-hailing companies, but none reports a measured return from those investments in the material covered here.
Predictions about data and mobility services also assumed that a new firm might control the vehicle system.
-
Large suppliers, battery makers and data companies were each expected to displace the carmaker. Carmakers retained specification, integration and finished-product responsibility.
Software is the broadest remaining example of strategic importance without separately measured profit.
-
Software now runs through the vehicle and charging experience. No carmaker covered here reports its software profit separately.
Market share, technical importance and control are not proof of profit. Look for a financial result reported by the business that earned or lost the money.
See it on the map → Next: What a rule changes → Back to the story →