Roles survive by solving constraints. AI moves which constraint matters.
Scarcity, risk, coordination - three constraints that make work valuable. AI dissolves scarcity-based constraints fastest. Risk and coordination are much harder for AI to absorb. That's where durable roles live.
Most "is my role safe" discussions skip the underlying question: which constraint does my role solve, and is AI about to dissolve it?
The three constraint types give you a sharper read than any skills list. They tell you not just whether your role will be replaced, but what to bundle around next.
Three types of constraint, three types of value
Scarcity-based constraints arise when something essential is also limited in supply. Specialised knowledge, rare expertise, hard-to-access information. Law, medicine, consulting were built on managing scarcity. AI is dissolving these fastest - knowledge isn't scarce anymore.
Risk-based constraints emerge where small errors have major consequences. Anesthesiologists, fugu chefs, fund auditors, FDA-reviewed clinical AI. Value accrues to whoever can reliably absorb the risk and own the accountability. AI struggles here because someone still has to be liable when things go wrong.
Coordination-based constraints appear when many moving parts must align. Producers on film sets, RevOps managers, nurse navigators, ecosystem orchestrators. AI helps with coordination but rarely replaces the human role - coordinating fragmented humans is itself a high-judgement task.
Examples from the book
Radio operator on a ship, 1940. Scarcity-based - Morse code skill was rare, the link to shore was rare, rescue depended on the operator. When satellite communication made the scarcity disappear, the role disappeared with it.
Anesthesiologist. Risk-based - every patient responds differently, errors are fatal, the role continuously interprets uncertainty. Even with monitoring equipment, the risk-based constraint remains. The role remains indispensable not because of what they do but because of what could go wrong if they didn't do it perfectly.
Film producer. Coordination-based - directors, financiers, unions, distributors, set designers, marketers, all must align under fluctuating budgets and tight deadlines. AI tools help with parts of this but the role itself is about holding the system together. If the producer fails, the entire project collapses.
How AI affects each
- What's scarce
- Knowledge, expertise, access
- Classic roles
- Lawyer, doctor, consultant, researcher
- AI's effect
- Dissolves rapidly - knowledge is no longer scarce
- Trajectory
- Pricing power collapsing
- What's scarce
- Judgement under uncertainty, accountability
- Classic roles
- Anesthesiologist, auditor, certified clinical AI ops
- AI's effect
- Slow to dissolve - someone has to be liable
- Trajectory
- Premium stable or rising
- What's scarce
- Ability to align fragmented actors toward a shared outcome
- Classic roles
- Producer, RevOps, nurse navigator, programme director
- AI's effect
- Helps but doesn't replace - coordinating people is high-judgement
- Trajectory
- Growing demand as systems fragment further
Roles built around scarcity are at the most risk. Roles built around risk and coordination tend to survive - and often grow more central - when AI restructures the system around them.
Which constraint does your role solve?
For your current role - or the role you're planning to move into - answer this:
- 01 Scarcity: what knowledge or access does my role provide that customers/employers couldn't easily get elsewhere? If the answer is "specialised knowledge," AI is dissolving that constraint - your scarcity-based value is shrinking.
- 02 Risk: what consequences am I absorbing on someone's behalf? If I make an error, who's accountable? If you absorb significant risk, you're holding a constraint AI struggles to replace.
- 03 Coordination: what would fragment or collapse if I weren't there? If multiple actors depend on my work to align, you're holding a coordination-based constraint - generally durable.
If your honest answer to all three is "not much," your role is unbundling. Rebundle around whichever of the three you can credibly own.
Connects to
Rebundling the Role
Value flows to whoever bundles a new role around the new constraint. The sommelier still wins.
The Solution Advantage
Value goes to whoever absorbs the customer's risk, not whoever ships the smartest tool.
The Building Block Economy
Capabilities become rentable modules. The win is in the assembly.
Scarcity is dissolving. Risk and coordination are where the durable value lives.
AI-Native Operating Model
An advisory engagement that redesigns the operating model and role architecture around the constraints AI doesn't dissolve - placing your firm's people on the right side of the scarcity / risk / coordination map.